{
  "project": "gpu-pilot",
  "doc": "energy/api/MODEL.md",
  "title": "Utilities Estimator \u2014 Model & Validation",
  "oneline": "RECS-2020-calibrated per-home usage model: the 5 dominant variables, NJ attribute backbone, and the validation table.",
  "tldr": [
    "5 dominant variables (HES-confirmed, RECS-fitted): heating fuel+equipment, sqft (ln elasticity 0.51 on heat), climate HDD/CDD (0.88/0.84), vintage (pre-1950 +33% heat vs 1980-99), occupants (drives DHW + plug loads). Per-end-use weighted regressions on RECS 2020 microdata (18,496 households), mean-recalibrated; coefficients auto-generated into coefficients.py.",
    "nj_home_attributes in the commute DB: 2,540,595 NJ homes \u2014 MOD-IV class-2 parcels (2.49M) + county-assessor sqft via decoded parcel keys (1.18M) + CJMLS merge (34,984 matched, 68.5% of unique listing addresses). Coverage: sqft 47.1%, year_built 98.9%, lat/lon ~100%.",
    "Heating-fuel regex on MLS remarks hits only 2.4% (1,506/61,609) \u2014 remarks are marketing copy; everyone else gets the NJ modal prior (gas, p=0.75). ETL ask: map the CJMLS RESO Heating/Cooling fields \u2192 near-100% fuel coverage.",
    "Validation: NJ default home 9,732 kWh vs RECS NJ SF-detached 10,138 (\u22124%); EIA ~680-700 kWh/mo reproduced; PSE&G typical dual-fuel $286.83/mo inside the published band; 4 worked examples $274.54\u2013$490.07/mo (the $490 is a 1907 oil-heated Montclair \u2014 oil \u2248 3.1\u00d7 gas per MMBtu).",
    "Pricing reuses the energy layer end-to-end: county\u2192utility (EIA-861 bundled) \u00d7 current-level factor (NJ \u00d71.207 \u21d2 PSE&G 24.64 \u00a2/kWh), state $/therm + oil + propane latest, NJ BGS 2026 PTC, utility_savings_county alternatives scaled to the home's kWh."
  ],
  "updated": "2026-06-12 12:02",
  "sections": [
    {
      "level": 1,
      "title": "MODEL.md \u2014 Home Utilities Cost Estimator"
    },
    {
      "level": 2,
      "title": "1. What the reference tools ask"
    },
    {
      "level": 2,
      "title": "2. The five dominant variables (and why)"
    },
    {
      "level": 2,
      "title": "3. Calibration \u2014 EIA RECS 2020 microdata"
    },
    {
      "level": 2,
      "title": "4. Pricing"
    },
    {
      "level": 2,
      "title": "5. Fallback ladder (per input, disclosed in `sources`)"
    },
    {
      "level": 2,
      "title": "6. NJ attribute backbone \u2014 `nj_home_attributes` (2,540,595 homes)"
    },
    {
      "level": 2,
      "title": "7. Validation (required checks)"
    },
    {
      "level": 2,
      "title": "8. Known limitations / next"
    }
  ],
  "stats": {
    "lines": 186,
    "words": 2014
  },
  "html": "https://board.certihomes.com/project-docs/gpu-pilot/energy-api-MODEL.html",
  "out_name": "energy-api-MODEL.md",
  "comments_api": "https://board.certihomes.com/api/doc-comments?project=gpu-pilot&doc=energy/api/MODEL.md"
}